BOB 01/2010/10 Dated: 19.05.2010 Time of issue: 0230 hours IST
Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning (Orange message).
The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved further westwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of yesterday, the 18th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.00N and long. 82.50E, about 240 km east of Chennai, 530 km west-southwest of Visakhapatnam and 1230 km southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20th May 2010.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the
|Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)||Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)|
85-95 gusting to 105
|19-05-2010/0530||13.0/82.0||95-105 gusting to 115|
|19-05-2010/1130||13.5/81.5||105-115 gusting to 125|
|19-05-2010/1730||14.0/81.5||115-125 gusting to 135|
|19-05-2010/2330||15.0/81.5||115-125 gusting to 135|
|20-05-2010/0530||16.5/81.5||115-125 gusting to 135|
|20-05-2010/1730||17.5/82.0||95-155 gusting to 155|
|21-05-2010/0530||18.5/83.0||85-95gusting to 105|
|21-05-2010/1730||19.5/84.5||75-85 gusting to 95|
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.